It should have been easy to see this energy blackout coming

There is little doubt that a warning from the energy watchdog last week that Britain is facing blackouts within 18 months was no empty threat, and one that should embarrass the government. But it also helps ministers as they try to swing public opinion behind subsiding nuclear power stations and providing incentives for shale gas explorers.

Conveniently, the warning from Ofgem - that the buffer of spare electricity in the system will fall from 4% to 2% by 2015 - came alongside important announcements on shale and nuclear. The government revealed that France's EDF would be able to receive a £ 10bn public guarantee on the financing needed to help build its proposed new reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset.

Second, the British Geological Survey unveiled a new assessment of fracking potential, showing that the north of England alone could have 1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas resources. Energy minister Michael Fallon said it would be "irresponsible" not to press ahead with new tax and planning rules that would help Britain exploit deposits that could provide all of our gas needs for 40 years.

But there are significant caveats. Hinkley Point will not be built until after 2020 at the very earliest, even if EDF and the government can agree on further concessions. Shale could, in theory, come earlier, but neither is going to save the country from its potential blackouts in the meantime.

That will come from encouraging power companies - yes, some of those same big six firms that have been mis-selling and jacking up household bills at every opportunity. They need to bring their mothballed plants back into service or look on as business customers cut energy use between 4pm and 8pm, as the National Grid has suggested. The bill will always come back to us, but we might ask why ministers left it all so long, and entirely to a flawed market regime, to deliver us from a real energy security threat that has been on the horizon for years.

From: The Observer